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«June 2015 Abstract Since 2011, Saudi Arabia has dramatically extended its labor market policies to address youth unemployment and low Saudi ...»

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Figures Figure I: Weekly Totals of Saudi and Expatriate Private-Sector Employees (#$" 7.6 4*?69" )*+,-."/0"12345.645-"7/.8-.9":+6;;6/9=" 7.4 )*+,-."/0"4*?6"7/.8-.9":+6;;6/9=" (" 7.2 12345.645-9" !#'" !#&" 6.8 6.6 !#%" 6.4 !#$" 6.2 !" 6

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Notes: This figure shows the weekly totals of Saudis and expatriate workers in the Nitaqat data. Vertical lines indicate important dates in program enforcement.

Figure II: Movements Between Color Bands (July 2011 to October 2012) 100%

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80% 70%

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Notes: This figure shows the proportion of firms in each starting category (x-axis) that transitioned into di↵erent color bands. For example, most firms in the yellow starting color band moved to the green category, and less than ten percent moved into the red category by October of the following year.

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Notes: These figures show how Saudization compliance requirements are normalized into a policy rule with a single kink at zero. Panel (a) plots the required increase in Saudization percentage against starting Saudization rate for medium-sized construction firms, which had a 6 percent Saudization target. Yellow dots correspond to firms in the Yellow and Red bands, and green dots to firms in the Green and Platinum bands.

The red line marks the compliance cuto↵ at 6 percent. Panel (b) plots this relationship for all firms, with kink locations corresponding with cell-specific compliance quotas. Panel (c) plots required increase against distance from the cuto↵, normalizing all kinks to zero.

Figure IV: Normalized Compliance Requirement: Required Change vs. Initial Distance from Cuto↵

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Notes: This figure shows the compliance rule in terms of the required increase in the number of Saudi employees holding expatriate employees fixed (panel (a)) and the decrease in the number of expatriate employees needed holding the number of Saudi employees fixed (panel (b)). In contrast to Figure IIIc, the units on the axes are number of employees rather than Saudi percentage.

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Notes: Firms with zero Saudization percentage at baseline are excluded from this figure. Bin size on is

0.5 percentage point. This figure corresponds to a McCrary test for a break in the baseline Saudization percentage for Green and Yellow firms at the compliance cuto↵. The corresponding McCrary test statistic is 0.94.

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Notes: Parametric tests for a kink in these baseline employment figures fail to reject the null of no change in the slope at all conventional significant levels. There is no evidence of a kink in either the linear fit or in the local quadratic polynomial fit.

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Notes: These figures show the linear RKD results for the full sample, with endline employment set to zero for exiting firms. Circles plot the average outcome variable for firms in one-unit bins based on initial distance from the cuto↵. Fit lines are based regression lines for firms within ten units of the cuto↵. Black lines for Saudi and expatriate employees show full-compliance benchmarks.

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−50 −40 −30 −20 −10 0 10 20 30 40

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Notes: These figures show the linear RKD results for the matched sample, with endline employment set to zero for exiting firms. Circles plot the average outcome variable for firms in one-unit bins based on initial distance from the cuto↵. Fit lines are based regression lines for firms within ten units of the cuto↵. Black lines for Saudization percentage and for Saudi and expatriate employees show full-compliance benchmarks.

Figure IX: Composition of New Entrants Relative to Quota: July 2011 and October 2012

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Notes: This figure shows the distribution of firms relative to distance from the cuto↵ (in terms of Saudi employee percentage) at entry for firms that entered the market in July 2011 (solid line) and firms that entered in October 2012. There were 5,276 new entrants in July 2011 and 8,634 new entrants in October

2012. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p-value: 0.001 Figure X: Strategic Firm-Level Hiring Patterns: Employment of Saudis and Expatriates over the Nitaqat Period

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Notes: Panel (a) shows the kernel density of the distribution of firms by size in July 2011 and in October

2012. Panel (b) shows the same density figure for only firms that appear in the baseline data, with Green and Platinum firms on the left and Red and Yellow firms on the right. Panel (c) shows the percentage of firms that exited the sample between July 2011 and October 2012 by initial number of employees. Yellow circles shows the exit rates for Yellow/Red firms and green circles show the rates for Green/Platinum firms.

Tables

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Notes: This table shows the total number of workers employed at firms in each color band Notes: This table shows the total number The sample includes employees atcolorfirms that were inand in July 2011 and October 2012. of workers employed at firms in each all band in July 2011 October 2012. The sample period. employees at all firms that were in the sample in either period.

the sample in either includes

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Notes: This table provides sample statistics on the number of firms in each of 37 industries and 4 size categories at baseline (July 9, 2011). Of the firms in the baseline sample, 1,027,017 were too small to be included in the Nitaqat program (fewer than ten employees). The fifteen industry classifications that were added in later versions of Nitaqat were road transport of goods within cities; road transport of goods between cities; laboratories; governmental and private schools (boys; mixed gender); security escorts;

private employment offices; kindergarten; bakeries; ready-mixed concrete; information technology;

governmental construction contractors; governmental hygiene contractors; petrol stations; and stone, granite and brick.

Notes: This table provides sample statistics on the composition of the workforce by industry at baseline (July 9, 2011). Column 1 counts the number of firms in each industry category, and column 2 the number of employees at firms in those industries. Column 3 sorts industries by their share of the total private-sector workforce.

Columns 4 and 5 report the number of Saudi workers in each industry and the share of workers in that industry in the total Saudi private sector workforce. Column 6 calculates the share of workers in each industry that are Saudi nationals, i.e. the overall industry Saudization rate. The last line reports the same statistics for the firms that were too small to be included in the Nitaqat program (less than ten employees).

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Notes: This table provides sample statistics on the composition of the workforce by size group at baseline (July 9, 2011). Column 1 counts the number of firms in each size category, and column 2 the number of employees at firms in those categories. Column 3 lists the category share of the total private-sector workforce. Columns 4 and 5 report the number of Saudi workers in each size group and the share of workers in that group in the total Saudi private sector workforce. Column 6 calculates the share of workers in each size category that are Saudi nationals, i.e. the overall category Saudization rate.

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Notes: This table gives the full set of results for the RKD estimates on the full set of firms in the data in July 2011.

For Saudi employees the running variable is distance from the cuto↵ in terms of number of Saudis. For expatriate employees the running variable is distance from the cuto↵ in terms of number of expatriate workers. For firm size the running variable is Saudization percentage point distance from the cuto↵. The number of employees in all categories ! 48 is set to zero for firms that exit the market between July 2011 and October 2012. Bandwidth is based on the units of the running variable. The largest and smallest 1% outliers in outcome variables are dropped for the Saudi and expatriate regressions and the largest 1% increases from the firm size regressions.

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